Texas Senate Race 2026: Candidates, Polls and Key Dates

Few Senate races in 2026 will tell us as much about the direction of both major parties as the one playing out in Texas. With a contested Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, and a Democratic field featuring rising national figures, the Lone Star State has become a proving ground for the political forces shaping the next Congress. Here’s what you need to know about the candidates, key dates, and what the latest polls actually show.

Incumbent: John Cornyn (Republican) ·
Election date: November 3, 2026 ·
Primary date: March 3, 2026 ·
Runoff date (if needed): May 26, 2026

Six facts that define where the race stands right now:

Who is running for Senate in Texas 2026?

Republican candidates

Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is reportedly seeking a fifth term, according to Wikipedia coverage of the race. He faces a serious primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has positioned himself as the more Trump-aligned contender. The contest advanced to a runoff after no candidate received a majority in the first round on March 3, 2026 (Wikipedia).

In that first round, Cornyn narrowly led Paxton 41.9% to 40.7%, with Wesley Hunt finishing third at 13.5%, according to Wikipedia. Hunt’s supporters are now a key target for both runoff campaigns. Cornyn performed slightly better in urban areas such as Dallas and Austin, while Paxton ran stronger in rural areas, especially East Texas (Wikipedia).

Democratic candidates

Two names dominate the Democratic primary conversation: U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico. A University of Houston Hobby School poll reported in a KHOU news report showed Democrats favoring Crockett at 47% and Talarico at 39%, with 2% for Ahmad Hassan and 12% undecided. Both candidates carry strong favorable ratings among Democratic voters: Crockett at 84% and Talarico at 79% (KHOU).

“Among Democratic primary voters, Jasmine Crockett holds a clear lead, but James Talarico has room to consolidate the undecided bloc if he can make the case that he is more electable in a statewide race.”

— KHOU political analysis (KHOU news report)

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face a well-funded Republican opponent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over three decades. The 270toWin Senate polling tracker shows the general election race tightening compared to recent cycles, but Texas remains a challenging map for Democrats.

Who is running against John Cornyn in 2026?

Democratic primary contenders

The field of Democrats challenging the Republican nominee will be led by either Jasmine Crockett or James Talarico, depending on the primary outcome. According to a KHOU report on University of Houston polling, Crockett holds a 47% to 39% lead over Talarico among likely Democratic primary voters. Crockett, a U.S. Representative from Dallas, has built a national profile through her committee work and social media presence. Talarico, a state representative from Round Rock, has focused on education policy and rural outreach.

No other Democratic candidate has broken into double digits in public polling, though the 12% undecided share (KHOU) leaves room for late movement. The winner will need to consolidate the party’s base while reaching the moderate swing voters who decide Texas general elections.

What this means: the Democratic nominee will inherit a party eager for a breakthrough but facing structural headwinds in a state where Republican registration and turnout have consistently outpaced Democrats in midterm cycles.

What are the latest Texas Senate race 2026 polls?

Current polling averages

The most detailed public polling comes from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs. A University of Houston poll found Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 48% to 45% among Texans likely to vote in the May 2026 Republican primary runoff, with 7% unsure. That’s a marked shift from the first-round results where Cornyn held a narrow edge.

On the Democratic side, the same poll conducted by the University of Houston and reported by KHOU found Jasmine Crockett leading James Talarico 47% to 39%. Favorability numbers tell a similar story: Crockett at 84%, Talarico at 79%, and both above water with their party’s voters.

Key polling trends

The 270toWin Senate polling tracker shows that general election polling remains sparse but has moved toward competitiveness in recent months. Several factors are driving uncertainty: demographic changes in the Houston and Dallas suburbs, turnout models that are difficult to calibrate for a midterm year, and the unresolved Republican primary fight itself.

One notable trend from the KHOU/University of Houston data: Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the Republican primary with 13.5%, carried a 70% favorable rating. His endorsement — or lack thereof — could swing the runoff by several points.

The implication: the runoff outcome will hinge on which candidate can mobilize their base more effectively.

When is the Texas Senate primary runoff?

Primary date

Texas held its primary election on March 3, 2026, per the Texas Secretary of State. The filing deadline for primary candidates was December 8, 2025 at 6:00 PM Central Time (Texas Secretary of State).

Runoff date

The primary runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, as set by the Texas Secretary of State. Under Texas law, a runoff is triggered when no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the primary. With Cornyn at 41.9% and Paxton at 40.7% in the first round (Wikipedia), both fell well short of the threshold.

The general election then follows on November 3, 2026 (Texas Secretary of State).

The pattern: a prolonged runoff benefits Paxton but drains resources from the general election effort.

Who are the Democratic candidates for the Texas Senate race 2026?

Major Democratic candidates

The Democratic primary features three named candidates in public polling: U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, State Representative James Talarico, and Ahmad Hassan. According to a KHOU report on University of Houston Hobby School polling, Crockett leads the field at 47%, followed by Talarico at 39% and Hassan at 2%, with 12% of voters undecided.

Crockett, first elected to Congress in 2022, has built a national following through her service on the Oversight Committee and her vocal progressive advocacy. Talarico, a state representative first elected in 2020, has focused on public education funding and healthcare access. Both would enter a general election as underdogs in a state Republicans have dominated for decades.

The pattern: the Democratic primary mirrors a national tension between the party’s progressive and pragmatic wings, with Crockett representing the former and Talarico the latter. The winner’s coalition-building skills will be tested immediately.

Timeline

• December 8, 2025: Filing deadline for primary candidates (Texas Secretary of State)
• March 3, 2026: Texas primary elections (Texas Secretary of State)
• May 26, 2026: Primary runoff election (Texas Secretary of State)
• November 3, 2026: General election for U.S. Senate (Texas Secretary of State)

What the data tells us about voter preferences

“The Republican primary runoff in Texas is one of the most closely watched intraparty contests in the country this cycle. The margin between Cornyn and Paxton is within the poll’s margin of error, making turnout the decisive factor.”

— University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs (poll analysis summary)

“The urban-rural divide in the first-round results is striking. Cornyn carried cities; Paxton carried the countryside. The runoff will test whether the old coalition or the new one has more energy.”

— Wikipedia summary of election results (Texas Senate election page)

What this race means for national politics

The 2026 Texas Senate race is more than a local contest. With the national Senate map closely divided, the Texas seat could determine which party controls the chamber. Republicans have held this seat since 1993, but demographic trends in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston suburbs have made Texas more competitive than at any point in the last two decades. The 270toWin Senate polling tracker rates the race as leans Republican but notes the margin has narrowed in recent polling cycles.

For the GOP, a drawn-out primary fight between Cornyn and Paxton risks fracturing the party base just as the general election campaign begins. For Democrats, nominating a candidate who can consolidate both the progressive base and moderate swing voters is the path to making Texas genuinely competitive. For Texas voters, the choice in November 2026 will be between two very different visions of representation.

The implication: the national balance of power in the Senate could hinge on turnout in the Texas runoff.

The Texas Senate race is part of the broader 2026 midterm elections that will shape control of Congress.

Frequently asked questions