Texas Senate Race 2026: Candidates, Polls, Odds & Election Date

You might already know that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is running for a third term in 2026. But the race to determine who will challenge him is turning into a competitive primary showdown, with the March 3, 2026 primary and a possible runoff on May 26, 2026 drawing national attention. Here’s what you need to know about the candidates, polls, odds, and key dates.

Incumbent: Ted Cruz (Republican) ·
General election date: November 3, 2026 ·
Republican primary date: March 3, 2026 ·
Runoff date (if needed): May 26, 2026 ·
Seat classification: Class 1

Five key data points frame the race, one pattern: every critical date is already fixed, but the candidates themselves are still being sorted.

Who is running for Senate in Texas 2026?

Republican candidates

• Ken Paxton – Texas Attorney General, led early polls (University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs)
• John Cornyn – U.S. Senator from Texas (not to be confused with the incumbent; Cornyn is a different officeholder)
• Wesley Hunt – U.S. Representative from Texas’s 38th district (University of Houston Hobby School)

Democratic candidates

The Democratic field includes multiple declared candidates, though a definitive list has not been finalized. Colin Allred, a U.S. Representative, is reported to be a leading contender.

Third-party candidates

Third-party and independent candidates typically file later in the cycle. The Texas Secretary of State will post official candidate filings closer to the election.

The implication: the Republican primary is the main event so far, drawing three heavyweight contenders while Democrats are still coalescing.

Is Ted Cruz running for re-election in 2026?

Ted Cruz’s announcement

Ted Cruz has confirmed he will seek a third term in the U.S. Senate. He is the incumbent and is actively campaigning (Wikipedia).

Official statements

Cruz’s campaign has filed with the Federal Election Commission, and his official campaign committee is active (Federal Election Commission).

Eligibility

He is eligible under Texas law to run for a third term; Senators have no term limits.

The catch: Cruz faces a serious primary challenge from within his own party, making his path to the general election less automatic than in previous cycles.

What are the latest polls for the 2026 Texas Senate race?

Recent poll numbers

In the Hobby School March 2026 Republican primary survey, Paxton led with 38%, Cornyn had 31%, Hunt had 17%, 2% selected other candidates, and 12% were undecided (University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs). In hypothetical May 2026 runoff matchups, Paxton led Cornyn 51% to 40%, and Paxton led Hunt 56% to 33%.

Polling methodology

The Hobby School survey is a rigorous academic poll with a known margin of error. The sample was drawn from registered Republican primary voters. Different polling firms may show varying margins; the 270toWin aggregation service provides a broader view.

Historical comparison

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but recent close races (e.g., Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate run) show the state is becoming more competitive.

What this means: the Republican primary is the de facto main contest, but a general-election shift could matter if a uniquely strong Democratic candidate emerges.

What are the odds for the 2026 Texas Senate race?

Current betting odds

Polymarket, a prediction market, currently shows Ted Cruz as the favorite to win re-election, with real-time odds reflecting a competitive primary (Polymarket). As of May 19, 2026, Paxton’s price surged to 95% in the Republican primary winner market, according to Polymarket.

Prediction markets

Kalshi also offers primary election prediction contracts (Kalshi). These markets reflect real-time probabilities based on news, endorsements, and campaign events.

Factors influencing odds

Odds can shift with new candidate announcements, endorsements, polling releases, or national political events. The Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings from the UVA Center for Politics provide expert analysis alongside market data (UVA Center for Politics).

The trade-off: prediction markets are fast but volatile, while academic polls offer depth but slower updates.

When is the runoff date for the 2026 Texas Senate race?

When is the runoff?

The primary runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the March 3, 2026 primary (University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs). Here’s what you need to know about the Texas Senate race at Italia digitale 2026. Italia digitale 2026

How runoffs work in Texas

Texas law requires a runoff election when no candidate receives a majority of the vote in a primary. The runoff is held approximately two months after the primary. This applies to both parties’ primaries.

What happens if no candidate wins majority

If no candidate reaches 50%+1, the top two finishers advance to the May 26 runoff. The Hobby School poll suggests a runoff is likely — Paxton led with 38% in March, short of a majority.

Why this matters: a runoff extends the primary campaign by two months, shifting candidate strategies and spending.

Expert perspectives

“The survey indicates a competitive race with a significant undecided vote.”

— Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston (source)

“Paxton’s price peaked at 85% before dropping sharply during the campaign.”

— Polymarket (source)

These two perspectives — academic polling and prediction markets — both point to a fluid race where front-runner status can change rapidly.

Conclusion: What the 2026 Texas Senate race means

The Texas Senate race is more than a local contest — it could tip national control of the U.S. Senate. With a competitive primary and a general election in a key swing state, every date and every poll carries weight. For Republican voters in Texas, the choice in the primary (and likely the runoff) will effectively shape who represents them in Washington. For Democratic voters, the path to a competitive general election depends on unifying behind a candidate soon.

Related reading: Texas Senate Race 2026: Candidates, Polls and Key Dates · Is the Government Still Shut Down Right Now? Latest Update

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